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Research report · August 28, 2026

Nvidia's Historic Print and the Multi-Trillion AI Runway

It pays to be Nvidia's CFO, quite literally. Colette Kress joined the company in 2013, back when annual revenue barely reached 4 billion dollars. Thirteen years, plus a pile of shares and options later, Forbes puts her fortune at 1.2 billion. Last night she earned her keep. Nvidia walked into the print on a seven day losing streak, and the stock had also fallen after each of its four previous earnings beats. The quarter was good and the guide was solid, but a soft gross margin outlook looked set to repeat the pattern. Then Kress delivered the number that changed the conversation. Nvidia expects revenue to grow roughly 70 percent next year, against the 44 percent the Street had penciled in. Customer forecasts point to growth above 100 percent if supply were not the limit. For a 5 trillion dollar company, the biggest problem is still not having enough product to sell. We collected the most important things from the report, and also updated our read on the structure of the trend, the key levels and expectations for the coming weeks.

Author · Belfed Analytics Coverage · EQUITIES · MACRO · Information Technology · Semiconductors
Nvidia's Historic Print and the Multi-Trillion AI Runway

01

Nvidia Marks Longest Losing Streak in Four Years Ahead of Earnings

Heading into its highly anticipated earnings release, Nvidia shares traded in the red for seven consecutive sessions, marking the stock's longest losing streak in four years.

Such persistent selling into a major catalyst underscored rising investor anxiety and an aggressive positioning cleanup in the most crowded stock in the market.

This pre-earnings shakeout helped clear excessive speculative froth, setting up a cleaner slate for the subsequent price reaction.

Nvidia 7-Day Losing Streak Ahead of Earnings (Source: Barchart)
Nvidia 7-Day Losing Streak Ahead of Earnings (Source: Barchart)

02

Nvidia Lags Broader Semiconductor Peers in 2026

The market's undisputed AI leader has become a notable laggard across the semiconductor complex. In 2026, Nvidia shares gained just 15%, sitting at the very bottom of the performance leaderboard among US chipmakers.

Meanwhile, other industry players surged: Micron gained 239%, Marvell surged 179%, Intel added 144%, and both Arm and AMD rallied over 120%.

Market leadership across semiconductors is broadening as investors rotate capital beyond the primary AI bellwether into other key supply chain beneficiaries.

US Semiconductor Share Performance in 2026 (Source: Bloomberg)
US Semiconductor Share Performance in 2026 (Source: Bloomberg)

03

Nvidia Struggles Post-Earnings Despite Consistent Beats

Even though Nvidia has beaten Wall Street estimates for four straight quarters, shares traded lower after each report.

Elevated investor expectations heading into the prints have consistently triggered sell-the-news profit-taking, regardless of operational strength.

Let's see if a positive reaction to this quarter's earnings can finally break that trend.

Nvidia Stock Reaction to Recent Earnings (Source: Barchart)
Nvidia Stock Reaction to Recent Earnings (Source: Barchart)

04

Strong Guidance Powers Nvidia Reversal After Initial Earnings Dip

Immediately following the earnings release, Nvidia shares dipped into the red as traders initially moved to take profits. However, the subsequent earnings call completely turned sentiment around.

Nvidia's CFO highlighted that customer demand continues to accelerate even at current massive scale. While client forecasts point to doubling growth, supply constraints will limit revenue growth to roughly 70% next year.

The strong multi-year demand outlook and full compute utilization across cloud partners reassured investors, sparking a sharp rebound across the tech complex.

Nvidia Revenue Growth & Forward Estimates (Source: Bloomberg)
Nvidia Revenue Growth & Forward Estimates (Source: Bloomberg)

05

Hyperscaler AI Capex Projected to Hit $1.3 Trillion a Year Early

Nvidia's CFO delivered a pivotal industry projection: capital expenditures across the top 5 hyperscalers (AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT, ORCL) are expected to reach $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027.

Wall Street consensus had previously penciled in the $1.3T spending milestone for 2028. Nvidia's guidance effectively accelerates that capex benchmark by a full year.

This aggressive ramp in infrastructure spending highlights that the hyperscaler AI arms race is moving faster than market models anticipated.

Top-5 Hyperscaler CapEx: Consensus vs. NVDA Guide (Source: Marlin Capital)
Top-5 Hyperscaler CapEx: Consensus vs. NVDA Guide (Source: Marlin Capital)

06

Wall Street Weighs Nvidia Print: Strong Top-Line vs. Margin Reset

Investment banks broadly praised Nvidia's results while noting that guidance merely met the high end of elevated institutional expectations. The implied quarterly revenue run-rate ($110B+) is robust, though the gross margin guide stepped down to 74% from the prior 75% benchmark.

Goldman Sachs remains a firm buyer, citing three catalysts: potential upside to the 70% growth target, a clearing event for gross margin concerns (72–73%), and management's commitment to return over 50% of free cash flow to shareholders.

07

Nvidia Guides Q3 Revenue to Historic $108 Billion Milestone

If Nvidia meets its official Q3 revenue guidance of $108 billion, it will mark a stunning +1,730% top-line expansion over just four years (up from $5.9B in 2022).

Never in corporate history has a company of this massive scale sustained such rapid exponential growth. The data center and AI compute segment now drives nearly the entirety of revenues, overshadowing gaming and automotive lines.

The relentless buildout of AI infrastructure continues to propel the chipmaker's financial results into uncharted territory.

Nvidia Revenue Breakdown & Q3 Guidance (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
Nvidia Revenue Breakdown & Q3 Guidance (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)

08

Most Profitable Quarter in Corporate History

Nvidia reported a record ~$60 billion in quarterly net income on roughly $96 billion in revenue. This marks the most profitable quarter ever recorded by any publicly listed company globally (excluding quarters skewed by one-off accounting gains).

For perspective, quarterly net income stood below $5 billion in early fiscal 2024.

This unprecedented profitability underscores the massive cash-generation power of Nvidia's dominant position at the center of the AI infrastructure boom.

Квартальная выручка и чистая прибыль Nvidia (Источник: Nvidia)
Квартальная выручка и чистая прибыль Nvidia (Источник: Nvidia)

09

Trend structure and road map for the weeks ahead

Ahead of the earnings release, we maintained a cautious stance on Nvidia's chart structure, highlighting a notable risk of a deeper pullback toward the 180–170 support zone.

Following the strong earnings reaction, the stock is now attempting to break through local overhead resistance. This forces us to evaluate an alternative bullish trend continuation scenario.

If price can hold firmly above the local 220–215 support zone during any near-term consolidation, we see potential for a sustained multi-month advance toward new all-time highs.

Nvidia (NVDA) Technical Analysis & Post-Earnings Levels (Source: Belfed Analytics)
Nvidia (NVDA) Technical Analysis & Post-Earnings Levels (Source: Belfed Analytics)
Trend structure and road map for the weeks ahead
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